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US gas prices have stopped rising and even briefly dipped in recent days. Now, there is growing hope that gas prices are at or near a peak for the spring – or perhaps even for the year. ‘Could have been much worse’Of course, none of this is to say gas prices are cheap. A spike in gas prices would be the last thing President Joe Biden needs as he struggles to convince voters of his economic message before November. Why gas prices have cooledThere are multiple reasons why gas prices have stopped rising for the moment.
Persons: Patrick De Haan, “ I’m, ” De Haan, Tom Kloza, , Andy Lipow, , De Haan, Joe Biden, Lipow, ” Lipow, Kloza Organizations: New, New York CNN, OPEC, AAA, CNN, , Oil Price Information Service, Lipow Oil Associates, Drivers, Federal Reserve, Biden, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Coast, Colorado State University Locations: New York, Israel, Iran, Covid, California, De Haan ., Washington, Syria, West Texas, New Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Goldman Sachs researchers are projecting oil prices to jump nearly 20% next year. AdvertisementAs the holiday season approaches, drivers are experiencing a welcome respite at gas stations, but those savings will likely go away in the new year. Last week, West Texas Intermediate crude, a benchmark for oil prices, dipped to approximately $73 per barrel, a significant 20% drop from its late September peak of $94. "The big surprise of 2023 is stronger than expected non-OPEC supply growth, which we think will slow heading into 2024," Struyven said. And what the US economy doesn't need in the near future is Americans tightening their budgets after their summer of fun and the holiday spending season.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , GasBuddy, Daan Struyven, CNBC's, Dado Ruvic, Struyven, David Kelly, We're, Kelly Organizations: Service, West, AAA, OPEC, Reuters, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Morgan Asset Management Locations: West Texas, OPEC, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia
The impact on oil prices would be enormous with one prediction of $150 per barrel. A surge in oil prices could undo the fight against inflation and cause prices to soar again. International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva expressed concern on Thursday over how global oil markets would be impacted by the war. If that were to happen, they predict that oil prices would skyrocket more than 70% to $150 per barrel from just under $90 we have now. An estimated 20-30% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran.
Persons: , Kristalina Georgieva, Steven Mnuchin, That's, Mnuchin, Mustafa Hassona, there's, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie Organizations: Service, Hamas, Monetary Fund, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg, US, Fox Business, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Biden, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Locations: Israel, Iran, Hormuz, Iraq, Kuwait, Abu Nasr, Gaza City, Ukraine, Washington ,, Xinhua
But there are signs that both supply and demand will bring prices back down in the coming months. AAA reported this week that the average price for a gallon of gas in the US was $3.88. AdvertisementAdvertisementAn atypical spike in pricesThe increase in gas prices is unusual, as we typically see some relief after the summer surge as demand wanes. If true, the worries about the impact of rising gas prices on consumer spending and inflation are overblown. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn recent years, with oil prices closer to $70 a barrel, gas prices have typically been close to $3 a gallon.
Persons: Mohamed el, Saudi Arabia's, Mohamed Oun, there's, Jorge León, Mike Wirth, we've, hasn't, Wirth, Grace Smith, David Kelly, We're, Kelly, Citi's, Ed Morse Organizations: Service, AAA, Allianz, Saudi, Reuters, Rystad Energy, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Chevron, Bloomberg, Denver, MediaNews, Getty, Morgan Asset Management, Citigroup, CNN Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Wall, Silicon, California, Clearwater Beach, Tampa , Florida, Libya, Ukraine, Brazil, Canada, Venezuela, Guyana
OPEC+ moves will send US gas prices higher
  + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —OPEC and its allies’ surprise move to slash oil production will soon be felt at US gas pumps. “I think OPEC is reawakening the inflation monster,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, which tracks gas prices for AAA. It certainly alters the calculus for a while.”The national average for US gas prices stood at $3.51, on Monday, according to AAA. Even at $3.51, US gas prices were just below the $3.53 average on Feb. 23, 2022, the day before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “They have ability to cut production and they seem motivated to do so,” he said.
It could take years to stock up the US emergency oil reserves after 2022's historic sales, per Reuters. The US energy secretary said maintenance costs at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and last year's sales make it difficult to refill the stockpile. The US strategic petroleum reserve is kept in huge underground salt caverns at four major facilities in Texas and Louisiana. The spike in price tracked surging oil prices, which shot past $120 a barrel last March. Brent crude oil has lost around 40% from March highs, while WTI crude, the US benchmark price, has dropped around 43%.
Why prices shot up, then fellA number of factors have coincided to bring prices steadily lower since then. Now, a year after the start of the war, crude oil prices on global markets and the retail price of regular gas across most of the United States are below pre-war levels. OPIS expects the average price throughout the course of 2023 to come in around $3.45, down from $3.96 last year. Few things take a bite out of gas prices like a recession, or even just the fear of one. The average price of a gallon of regular gas hit a then-record of $4.11 in early July 2008, according to OPIS data.
Wild price swings at the gas pump throughout the year make predicting prices for 2023 even more difficult. Diesel prices fell 20% from their peak in June, only about half the decline for gasoline during the same period. Greater demand for North American diesel by Europe in the wake of the war in Ukraine kept diesel prices so high. Most trucking companies charge a fuel surcharge to their customers when diesel prices increase. Many of the western states faced much higher gas prices because of more limited refining capacity.
The US economy could enter a recession in 10-12 weeks, according to Bank of America. These are the five reasons why Bank of America believes a recession could hit by March 2023. This potential recession has been called the most telegraphed recession in history because everyone seems to be expecting a decline. Bank stocks are down 10% in just four days. Bank stocks are often described as a "canary in the coal mine", and feel the pain of a downturn earlier than stocks in other sectors.
Oil prices will hover around $90 per barrel in 2023 as Russia boosts its production to pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan. The bank lowered its 2023 oil forecast by $8 because of the expected supply increase from Russia. The refilling of the special petroleum reserve by the Biden administration should also support oil prices. If Russia's oil production levels normalize as JPMorgan expects, it will likely find a big buyer in India. That could lead to slight oil production cuts next year from OPEC to help prop up oil prices, as US shale production continues to have less influence over prices compared to a few years ago.
And no wonder — the economy is giving Americans less and less reason for optimism. The US housing market isn't just slowing down, it's in the early stages of a major correction. According to the latest consumer confidence report, Americans are feeling downbeat across the board. In Franco's words: "The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80 — a level associated with recession — suggesting recession risks appear to be rising." Here are the latest market moves.
Adam Kinzinger said a GOP-majority Congress might try to impeach the president every week. "That's going to look like child's play in terms of what Marjorie Taylor Greene is going to demand of Kevin McCarthy," Kinzinger said, referring to the House Minority leader. "They're going to demand an impeachment vote on President Biden every week," he quipped. Kinzinger appeared to be referring to how Greene, a right-wing lawmaker from Georgia, has made impeaching Biden part of her official platform. "I think it'll be a very difficult majority for him to govern unless he just chooses to go absolutely crazy with them," said Kinzinger, referring to his far-right GOP colleagues.
Former President Donald Trump slammed President Joe Biden for lowering gas prices. Trump claimed the decrease was a politically motivated scheme. "Right after the election, it's going to double up and go higher than anybody ever believed," Trump claimed. While the crowd cheered during Trump's rant on the current status of gas prices, some supporters didn't seem too bothered. "Wasn't too bad," the supporter said of the gas prices.
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